NEXUSAUTONOMOUS PREDICTION INTELLIGENCE
… · sweep -- · gen --
◆ NEURAL NET + LIVE-SEARCH AI PRICING SWEEP RUNNING, THE TAPE FILLS AS MARKETS ARE PRICED…
THE FIRMten desks, one committee, information flowing liveWATCHING
ARGUS, Event Discovery Sweeps every open Kalshi market, regroups them into real-world events, ranks by imminence × liquidity (event radar).ARGUSEVENT DISCOVERYVERITY, Data Integrity Scores input quality: engine heartbeat freshness, live-vs-seed board, price inside the tradable band, book type. Bad data caps council confidence.VERITYDATA INTEGRITYTAPE, Market Structure Votes the order book itself, the crowd’s posterior. Weight scales with traded volume and resting depth. The efficiency anchor every model must out-argue.TAPEMARKET STRUCTUREVESTA, Historical Research Applies the documented favorite-longshot calibration prior (a logit-sharpening of the market price) plus the research lab’s settled-market evidence.VESTAHISTORICAL RESEARCHGAUSS, Domain Intelligence The model that actually priced this market, closed-form N(d2) for strike markets, AI research with live-search grounding, or the calibration harvest band.GAUSSDOMAIN INTELLIGENCEPROPHET, Settlement Memory KalshiBrain, a second in-house neural net trained purely on OUR settled ledger (market price, engine read, category, time-to-close → P(YES)). Votes only while its held-out Brier beats the market itself.PROPHETSETTLEMENT MEMORYLAPLACE, Statistical Modeling Seeded Monte Carlo over a Beta posterior around the model estimate: credible interval, P(edge is real), EV distribution. Deterministic per case, fully auditable.LAPLACESTATISTICAL MODELINGCONSENSUS, Investment Committee Precision-weighted log-odds pool of every probability vote; dispersion of the votes is measured and reported as disagreement.CONSENSUSINVESTMENT COMMITTEEATLAS, Risk Management Half-Kelly on the council consensus, trust-scaled by realized book P&L, hard-capped at 8% of bank; drawdown circuit breaker; $50 minimum ticket.ATLASRISK MANAGEMENTMINERVA, Portfolio Construction Slot discipline (12 open max), 30% category concentration cap, one position per event. Can hold an approved case in WAIT until room opens.MINERVAPORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTIONHERMES, Execution IOC orders at the live book, reduce-only exits, per-session budget, typed-confirm arming. Acts only on an ENTER verdict, never originates.HERMESEXECUTION
ARGUSVERITYVESTAGAUSSPROPHETLAPLACETAPECONSENSUSATLASMINERVAHERMES
6%
CONNECTING
dispersion 0.25 · desks aligned
EQUITY
REALIZED
CASH READY
THE FLOOR TALKSAI desk chatter · Gemini, grounded in the live state
The desks are reading the floor
Live LLM commentary appears here, generated from the real case sheet, never from thin air.
ARGUS WIRE
DECISION COUNCILneural-net + live-search AI pricings, argued by the desks, consensus, gates, size0 ENTER0 WAIT0 PASS
The floor is quiet, the last sweep found nothing worth arguing over. Every candidate and near-miss appears here the moment one exists; the council never manufactures a case to look busy.
THE RECORDappend-only since inception · $10k paper book marked to the live tape
The curve draws itself one settled trade at a time.
OPEN BOOK · , /12every position carries its committee thesis
SETTLED & SELF-CRITIQUEDevery close gets a structured post-mortem, expand one
LEARNING LOOPvoting power is earned, every settlement re-weights the desks
No settled trades yet. Weights start neutral (×1.00) and move with realized P&L.