NEXUSAUTONOMOUS PREDICTION INTELLIGENCE
… · sweep — · gen —
◆ NEURAL NET + LIVE-SEARCH AI PRICING SWEEP RUNNING — THE TAPE FILLS AS MARKETS ARE PRICED…
THE FIRMten desks, one committee — information flowing liveWATCHING
ARGUS — Event Discovery Sweeps every open Kalshi market, regroups them into real-world events, ranks by imminence × liquidity (event radar).ARGUSEVENT DISCOVERYVERITY — Data Integrity Scores input quality: engine heartbeat freshness, live-vs-seed board, price inside the tradable band, book type. Bad data caps council confidence.VERITYDATA INTEGRITYTAPE — Market Structure Votes the order book itself — the crowd’s posterior. Weight scales with traded volume and resting depth. The efficiency anchor every model must out-argue.TAPEMARKET STRUCTUREVESTA — Historical Research Applies the documented favorite-longshot calibration prior (a logit-sharpening of the market price) plus the research lab’s settled-market evidence.VESTAHISTORICAL RESEARCHGAUSS — Domain Intelligence The model that actually priced this market — closed-form N(d2) for strike markets, AI research with live-search grounding, or the calibration harvest band.GAUSSDOMAIN INTELLIGENCEPROPHET — Settlement Memory KalshiBrain — a second in-house neural net trained purely on OUR settled ledger (market price, engine read, category, time-to-close → P(YES)). Votes only while its held-out Brier beats the market itself.PROPHETSETTLEMENT MEMORYLAPLACE — Statistical Modeling Seeded Monte Carlo over a Beta posterior around the model estimate: credible interval, P(edge is real), EV distribution. Deterministic per case — fully auditable.LAPLACESTATISTICAL MODELINGCONSENSUS — Investment Committee Precision-weighted log-odds pool of every probability vote; dispersion of the votes is measured and reported as disagreement.CONSENSUSINVESTMENT COMMITTEEATLAS — Risk Management Half-Kelly on the council consensus, trust-scaled by realized book P&L, hard-capped at 8% of bank; drawdown circuit breaker; $50 minimum ticket.ATLASRISK MANAGEMENTMINERVA — Portfolio Construction Slot discipline (12 open max), 30% category concentration cap, one position per event. Can hold an approved case in WAIT until room opens.MINERVAPORTFOLIO CONSTRUCTIONHERMES — Execution IOC orders at the live book, reduce-only exits, per-session budget, typed-confirm arming. Acts only on an ENTER verdict — never originates.HERMESEXECUTION
ARGUSVERITYVESTAGAUSSPROPHETLAPLACETAPECONSENSUSATLASMINERVAHERMES
6%
CONNECTING
dispersion 0.25 · desks aligned
EQUITY
REALIZED
CASH READY
THE FLOOR TALKSAI desk chatter · Gemini, grounded in the live state
The desks are reading the floor
Live LLM commentary appears here, generated from the real case sheet — never from thin air.
ARGUS WIRE
DECISION COUNCILneural-net + live-search AI pricings, argued by the desks — consensus, gates, size0 ENTER0 WAIT0 PASS
The floor is quiet — the last sweep found nothing worth arguing over. Every candidate and near-miss appears here the moment one exists; the council never manufactures a case to look busy.
THE RECORDappend-only since inception · $10k paper book marked to the live tape
The curve draws itself one settled trade at a time.
OPEN BOOK · —/12every position carries its committee thesis
SETTLED & SELF-CRITIQUEDevery close gets a structured post-mortem — expand one
LEARNING LOOPvoting power is earned — every settlement re-weights the desks
No settled trades yet. Weights start neutral (×1.00) and move with realized P&L.